The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global wheat supplies for 2015/16 to 2.3 million tons primarily on increased production, but also higher beginning stocks.
World wheat production remains record high, it said in a report, adding it was raising the forecast by 1.9 million tons to 734.9 million. The primary production change is for Canada, up 1.6 million tons to 27.6 million on a Statistics Canada report.
The USDA said it was raising its forecast for global wheat trade for 2015/16, with exports up 1.3 million tons on larger supplies, expected policy changes in Argentina, and stronger demand in several importing countries.
“Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine. The Argentina change is based on the expectation that the new government will reduce export restrictions. The Canada change is on a larger crop as well as a strong pace to date. The Ukraine change is also on a fast pace as well as strong feed wheat demand in Southeast Asia,” the USDA report said.
The largest import increases are 0.4 million tons for Ethiopia on expectations of additional tenders in response to emergency food needs, and 0.3 million tons each for Indonesia and Thailand on increased feed wheat purchases, it said.
The agency, however, said total world wheat consumption for 2015/16 is likely to be 0.2 million tons lower, with the biggest change being a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU wheat feeding that is mostly offset by increased consumption in several other countries, notably 0.3 million-ton-increases each for Indonesia and Thailand feeding.
Global ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher with large increases for the EU and Canada partially offset by decreases for Argentina and Ukraine, the report said.