World coffee production for 2015/16 is forecast up 600,000 bags over the previous year to 150.1 million as record output in Indonesia and Honduras–as well as recovery in Vietnam–more than offsets a shortfall in Brazil. Global exports and consumption are forecast at record quantities, lowering ending stocks to 36.7 million bags, the U.S. Department of Agricultre said.
It said in a latest report that Brazil’s Robusta harvest is forecast to decline 3.7 million bags to 13.3 million. Yields are lower following below-average rainfall and above- average temperatures in Espirito Santo, where the vast majority is grown. Arabica output is forecast to fall 1.2 million bags to 36.1 million on lower yields following January’s dry growing conditions in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, two regions that account for about 80 percent of output.
Vietnam’s production is forecast up 1.9 million bags to 29.3 million on higher yields in most growing regions. Between January and March 2015, the main coffee regions in the Central Highlands experienced seasonal dry and sunny weather–which is normal for this period–and trees were irrigated. Although the dry season extended into April during the flowering stage, irrigation continued until normal rains returned during the cherry development period of May through July. Although farmers reacted to low prices last year by reducing sales and building stocks, bean exports are now forecast to jump 6.3 million bags to 26.7 million, drawing stocks 1.6 million bags lower to 4.2 million, the report said.
Colombia’s production is forecast to rise marginally to 13.4 million bags as the rust-resistant replanting program that was conducted over the last several years combined with normal weather conditions to maintain strong output. The rust initially affected as much as 40 percent of the planted area but has since declined to less than 5 percent. This follows an aggressive tree renovation program that replaced an estimated 70 percent of total area planted. Bean exports are forecast to gain 150,000 bags to 11.5 million on higher shipments to United States, it said.
It forecast Indonesia’s production to gain 1.8 million bags to a record 10.6 million, driven by a rebound in Robusta output that benefitted from favorable weather during flowering. However, this period was followed by below-average rainfall that lowered yields slightly for the later-blooming Arabica trees, for which production is forecast down 100,000 bags to 1.3 million. Bean exports are forecast to rebound 400,000 bags to 5.5 million on gains to the EU while soluble exports are expected to spike 700,000 bags to 2.6 million primarily on strong demand from the Philippines.
India’s production is forecast lower by 100,000 bags to 5.3 million on slightly weaker yields in Karnataka, the largest coffee producing state. However, higher carryin stocks are expected to provide ample supplies for exporters to increase bean shipments 300,000 bags to 3.5 million. The European Union accounts for nearly half of the world’s bean imports and is forecast to increase 400,000 bags to a record 45.5 million. Last year, top suppliers included Brazil (33 percent), Vietnam (23 percent) and Honduras (6 percent). Ending stocks are forecast to remain nearly unchanged at 12.5 million bags. The United States is the second-largest importer and is forecast to increase 500,000 bags to 24.0 million due to higher consumption. Last year, top suppliers included Brazil (30 percent), Colombia (21 percent), and Vietnam (13 percent). Ending stocks are forecast nearly unchanged at 6.1 million bags.