Global coarse grain supplies lowered by USDA in latest estimates report

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 6.8 million tons lower mostly on lower corn production for South Africa and the United States and lower rye production for Russia, according to the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put out by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The report lowered foreign coarse grain supplies to 5.9 million tons. Corn production is lowered 4.0 million tons for South Africa as continued heat and dryness during December further reduced prospects for area and yields, particularly in the western producing areas where satellite imagery suggests much of this year’s crop may not have been planted. Russia corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons with reductions in area and yields, but an area increase for Ukraine corn raises production an offsetting 0.5 million tons. Other corn production changes include smallreductions for China and Peru. Reductions in rye and oats production for Russia more than offset an increase for barley.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2015/16 is reduced with the biggest reduction for Russia, down 1.2 million tons with lower rye, oats, and corn consumption reflecting tighter supplies with the smaller crops. Corn consumption for South Africa is lowered 0.7 million tons with reduced supplies. Corn consumption is also lowered for Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Pakistan, the report said.

It said global coarse grain imports for 2015/16 are raised with increases for South Africa, Mexico, and Peru corn more than offsetting reductions in corn imports for China and Saudi Arabia. Corn exports are raised for Brazil, Mexico, and Ukraine, but lowered for South Africa, India, and Russia. Corn exports are also raised for Argentina and Brazil for the 2014/15 (March 2015 through February 2016 local year) further reducing prospects for 2015/16 U.S. corn exports (September 2015 through August 2016).

Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 2.9 million tons lower with reductions for Brazil, China, South Africa, Pakistan, Russia, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia. World corn ending stocks remain record large at 208.9 million tons; however, more than half of those stocks are held in China.

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