Global soybean prodcution up on higher estimates from Argentina and Ukraine – USDA


Global soybean production is up this month as larger estimates for Argentina and Ukraine more than offset lower production in South Africa, the USDA said in its latest report, adding that it was raising exports estimates on greater shipments from Ukraine.

“Global stocks are raised this month, reflecting growing supplies in Argentina as well as reduced crush estimate in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged,” it said.

“U.S. export bids in January, FOB Gulf, averaged $355/ton, up $4 from last month. As of the week ending January 28, U.S. 2015/16 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 25.1 million tons compared with 28.5 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 40.6 million tons, compared with 45.4 million for the same period last year,” the report said.

Trade changes in 2015/16

  • United States soybean meal exports are reduced 454,000 tons to 10.2 million in response to stronger competitive pressure from South America.
  • Argentina soybean meal exports are up 500,000 tons to 31.8 million in response to a larger crush that reflects this month’s higher crop forecast.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are lowered by 150,000 tons to 2.5 million reflecting lower carry-over stocks from the previous marketing year, a result of an increase in final year trade.
  • Canada rapeseed exports are increased by 300,000 tons to 9.0 million driven by elevated EU demand and reduced competition from Australia.
  • EU rapeseed imports are raised 200,000 tons to 2.4 million on a stronger than expected pace of trade in the first half of the marketing year.
  • India’s Soybean meal exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 150,000 as strong domestic demand further limits export availability. o Rapeseed meal exports are slashed 100,000 tons to 200,000 to partially offset a drop in peanut meal production.
  • Soybean oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 3.7 million to offset lower peanut oil production.
  • Palm oil imports are increased 100,000 tons to 9.6 million because of strong domestic demand for all vegetable oils.
  • Malaysia palm oil exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 18.0 million reflecting tighter supplies following a smaller than expected harvest in 2016.
  • Ukraine Soybean exports are up 100,000 tons to 2.2 million, reflecting a larger crop estimate.

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