Global wheat production in 2015/16 is up slightly to a new record, with a larger projected crop in Argentina the biggest change, the USDA said in its latest monthly report, adding that global trade is up inappreciably.
It said Canada’s and Turkey’s exports are raised and the United States is lowered. The season-average farm price is unchanged this month.
For the second year in a row, Canada is expected to surpass the United States in wheat exports, the agency said, adding that this trend is underpinned by favorable exchange rates for Canadian exports.
“A strong U.S. dollar is hampering the United States’ ability to compete in traditional markets, much less in a global market awash in lower priced wheat. The U.S. dollar has appreciated 32 percent against the Canadian dollar since the start of the 2013/14 trade year. As Canadian wheat exports maintain their competitive advantage against U.S. wheat, its ending stocks are projected at an 8-year low. U.S. stocks, on the other hand, are expected to rise to a burdensome 6-year high,” the USDA said.
Trade changes in 2015/16
Canada is boosted 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million on the strong shipment pace to date.
Turkey is raised 500,000 tons to 4.5 million as flour and pasta product exports expand into new markets in sub-Saharan Africa.
United States is cut 500,000 tons to 21.5 million on sluggish sales and shipments to date.
China is up 300,000 tons to 2.3 million due to a stronger-than-expected pace.
Ethiopia is raised another 500,000 tons this month to 2.4 million as lower-priced wheat is substituting for other coarse grains in food consumption.
Iran is down 500,000 tons to 4.0 million as the government attempts to lower excess supplies by prohibiting government wheat imports after March 20, 2016.
South Korea is boosted 300,000 tons to 4.5 million based on a recent uptick in feed quality wheat purchases.