Global energy use to rise by a third by 2035 – BP

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Rising population and the expected growth in the world economy led by India and China will boost global energy consumption by 34 percent between 2014 and 2035, BP’s latest Energy Outlook forecast.

It said the world gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to more than double – around one-fifth of the doubling being due to population growth and four-fifths to improvements in productivity.

“China and India together account for almost half of the projected increase in global GDP, with OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies accounting for around a quarter,” the report said, adding that the world’s population is projected to increase by around 1.5 billion people to reach nearly 8.8 billion people by 2035.

Virtually all of the additional energy will be consumed in fast-growing emerging economies. Energy demand within the OECD with barely grow and growth in China’s energy demand will slows as its economy rebalances towards a more sustainable rate,

  • Global energy consumption grows by around one-third (+34%) while the global economy more than doubles in size, with energy intensity falling faster than at any time in our historical data.
  • Natural gas is the fast growing fossil fuel projected to grow 1.8% p.a. over the forecast period. 2. Carbon emissions growth more than halves relative to the past 20 years: 0.9% p.a. versus 2.1% p.a.. 3. By 2035 coal accounts for less than 25% of primary energy, its lowest share since the industrial revolution

World energy demand is projected to grow by 1.4% p.a. from 2014 to 2035, with 95% of the growth coming from non-OECD countries.

  • Global energy intensity (the ratio of energy demand to GDP) is projected to decline by 2.1% p.a. over this period. This is faster than in any 20-year period in history since our data began in 1965.
  • Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel (1.8% p.a.) followed by oil (0.9% p.a.). Coal growth slows sharply (0.5% p.a.), significantly below the average growth over the previous 20 years (2.9% p.a.).
  • Renewables (including biofuels) increase almost four-fold over the forecast period (+285%). They account for a quarter of primary energy growth out to 2035.
  • By 2035 non-fossil fuels make up 21% of global primary energy compared to 14% today.
  • More than half (56%) of primary energy growth over the Outlook is going into the power sector.

Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) increases by around 20Mb/d, to reach 112Mb/d by 2035. Transport accounts for over 60% of the growth.

  • Global liquids supply grows by nearly 19Mb/d by 2035, led by growth in non-OPEC supply. Tight oil and NGLs, Brazilian deepwater, Canadian oil sands, and biofuels together grow by 16Mb/d.
  • Asia makes up nearly 80% of all intra-regional imports of oil in 2035, up from 64% today.
  • Production of shale gas grows at 5.6% p.a., accounting for more than half of the growth in global production. US shale gas on its own makes up 35% of gas production growth.
  • International trade in gas grows in line with consumption, such that the global trade share of gas remains around 30%. LNG trade grows twice as fast; its share of consumption rises from 10% in 2014 to 15% in 2035.

 

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