India will show the fastest energy consumption growth among all major economies and remain import dependent, despite rapid increases in non-fossil fuel production, BP’s Energy Outlook forecasting the state of global energy scenario between 2014-2035 said.
The report said it sees India’s energy consumption grow by 4.2% per year, faster than all major economies in the world and India’s coal consumption (+435 Mtoe) as the largest in the world. It forecast renewables to grow by more than 6.5 times from 2014 to 2035.
Oil import will rise by 161% and account for 52% of the increase in imports, followed in volumetric terms by increasing imports of coal (+122%) and gas (+301%) in the period, the report added. It made the following predictions:
- Demand for gas expands by 155%, followed by coal (+121%) and oil (+118%), while renewables rise by 656%, nuclear by 334%, and hydro by 99%.
- India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the Outlook, with fossil fuels accounting for 87% of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 79%. This is down from 92% in 2014.
- India’s share of global demand rises by 9% in 2035, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries with China at 25%, Russia 4%, and Brazil 2%.
- India’s demand growth of 136% is more than double the non-OECD average (+56%), and India also outpaces each of the BRIC countries: Russia (+11%), China (+48%), and Brazil (+45%).
- Energy in transport grows by 5.1% p.a. from 2014 to 2035 and oil remains the dominant fuel source with a 93% market share in 2035.
The report said energy consumption in power generation will more than double (+145%); coal will remain the dominant fuel source, but its market share in the power sector will drop from 77% in 2014 to 71% in 2035.
- India’s energy production as a share of consumption declines from 57% in 2014 to 54% by 2035 as imports rise by 153%.
- Decline in oil production (-24%) is offset by increases in gas (+68%) and coal (+120%).
- Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in India with a 66% share of total production in 2035.
- Renewables overtake oil as the second largest, increasing from 4% to 13% in 2035 as oil drops from 11% to 4%.
- CO2 emissions from energy use rise by 122%. Emissions per unit of GDP fall by 37% by 2030.
- By 2035, India’s energy intensity of GDP is nearly 40% lower than today’s level, compared to an average BRIC decline of 44%.