Indian economy seen growing at more than 8 pct over next two years, says government

  • Economy to clock more than 7 per cent growth this fiscal;
  • Over 8 per cent growth in next couple of years. 

Despite a global slowdown, the Indian economy will continue to grow at more than 7 percent for the third straight year in 2016-17 helped by a normal monsoon, the government said.

It said in its annual Economic Survey that conditions do exist for the country’s economy to grow at 8 percent or more due to the government’s commitment for reforms.

“The survey underlines that despite global headwinds and a truant monsoon, India registered 7.2 per cent growth in 2014-15 and 7.6 per cent in 2015-16, thus becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world.,” it said.

The Survey pointed out agriculture sector growth in 2015-16 has continued to be lower than the average of last decade, mainly on account of it being the second successive year of lower-than-normal monsoon rains. Production of food grains and oil-seeds is estimated to decline by 0.5 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively, while the production of fruits and vegetables is likely to increase marginally.

“A brighter picture is expected to emerge from the allied sectors consisting of livestock products, forestry and fisheries with a growth exceeding 5 per cent in 2015-16, which will provide some impetus to rural incomes,” the Survey said.

Growth in industry is estimated to have accelerated during the current year on the strength of improving manufacturing activity. The private corporate sector, with an around 69 per cent share of the manufacturing sector, is estimated to grow by 9.9 per cent at current prices in April-December 2015-16.

The ongoing manufacturing recovery is is aided by robust growth in petroleum refining, automobiles, wearing apparels, chemicals, electrical machinery and wood products including furniture. Apart from manufacturing, the other three segments of the industry sector- electricity, gas, water supply and related utilities, mining and quarrying and construction activities are witnessing a deceleration in growth, the Survey said.

It said the growth in the services sector had moderated slightly, but still remains robust. Being the main driver of the economy, the sector contributed about 69 per cent of the total growth during 2011-12 to 2015-16 and in the process expanded its share in the economy by 4 percentage points from 49 to 53 per cent.

The Survey in its outlook clearly points out that though the emerging market economies have clearly slowed down, the Indian economy stands out as a haven of macroeconomic stability, resilience and optimism and can be expected to register GDP growth that could be in the range of 7- 7.75 per cent in the coming year.


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