Smaller South African crop lowers 2015/16 world corn production – USDA

World corn production for 2015/16 is marginally lower, driven mainly by a smaller South African crop, but global trade is projected up, highlighted by greater imports for South Africa and the Philippines, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest monthly report.

corn-fieldIt said exports for Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa are boosted, more than offsetting a cut in India. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged.

Since the February report, U.S. export quotes fell $13/ton to $159 due to large global supplies and strong competition, the agency said, adding that U.S. corn has dropped to a discount against all major exporters for the first time since January 2015.

Both Argentine and Black Sea quotes fell this month (now $160/ton and $165/ton, respectively) based on strengthened global competition, it said.

Trade changes in 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Brazilian corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 37.5 million on the continued fast pace of shipments.
  • Indian corn is down 200,000 tons to 500,000 reflecting higher domestic prices and fading competitiveness in the world market.
  • Indonesian corn is raised 225,000 tons to 250,000 with larger expected shipments to the Philippines. (Imports are down 200,000 tons to 3.1 million on a larger crop.)

Selected Importers

  • Mexican corn is up 200,000 tons to 11.5 million on the fast pace of sales, particularly from the United States.
  • Philippine corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 800,000 to offset lower production. Feed use is expected to remain strong with wheat feeding reduced.
  • South African corn is raised 700,000 tons to 2.7 million on lower expected production and the intensifying pace of arrivals. (Exports are up 200,000 tons to 800,000 on higher expected demand from Southern African Customs Union (SACU) partners.)
  • Venezuelan corn is down 200,000 tons to 1.9 million on the slow pace of imports.
  • Pakistani sorghum is up 115,000 tons to 130,000 based on recent U.S. export sales. High domestic corn prices are driving sorghum use in feed rations.

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