The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled further over the past fortnight, and trade winds are near normal. However the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains very low, indicating that while El Niño is easing, it is still capable of influencing global climate, the Australia’s Bureau of Metreology said.
It said in its latest forecast that International climate models indicate that cooling in the tropical Pacific will continue, with a likely return to neutral levels by mid-2016.
“For winter and spring, climate models favour ENSO neutral slightly ahead of La Niña. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year are lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised,” it said.
Although the 2015–16 El Niño is weakening, it will continue to influence climate during the southern hemisphere autumn, the bureau said.