World wheat production for 2015-16 is seen higher as larger crops in Argentina and the EU will more than offset reductions in Ethiopia and Pakistan, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest monthly report.
It said global trade is up fractionally this month, with upward revisions for Algeria, China, and others offset by diminished imports for Brazil, Iran, and Sudan.
The USDA raised exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan, while those for the the EU were revised downward. U.S. exports were also trimmed, and the season-average farm price was lowered from last month.
Trade Changes in 2015-16
- Argentina is raised 500,000 tons to 7.5 million on a larger crop and a continuing strong pace of shipments, particularly to Southeast Asian markets.
- The European Union is cut 500,000 tons to 32.0 million on account of lagging export licenses and greater domestic usage. • Iran is slashed 300,000 tons to 200,000 due to weak demand and increased regional competition.
- Kazakhstan is lifted 500,000 tons to 7.0 million on a steady pace of shipments and a competitive advantage over other regional exporters due to a weak currency.
- Turkey is elevated 300,000 tons to 5.0 million, a quarter-century high, based on the robust pace of flour and products trade.
- United States is trimmed 200,000 tons to 21.3 million owing to the slow pace of new crop sales. (The marketing year estimate is unchanged)
- Algeria is boosted 400,000 tons to 8.1 million due to a strong import pace. The country is taking advantage of low world prices to build its stocks of milling wheat.
- Brazil is down 500,000 tons to 5.8 million on account of slow pace to date and static domestic consumption. • China is raised 500,000 tons to 3.0 million due to persistent demand for premium quality milling wheat.
- Iran is lowered 700,000 tons to 3.3 million based on a significantly weaker pace of imports resulting from a good domestic crop and government policy. The policy restricts imports of wheat effective in the new Iranian calendar year, which began March 20.
- Sudan is reduced 500,000 tons to 2.3 million on a very sluggish pace to date as the country grapples with low growth and high inflation.
- Syria is elevated 300,000 tons to 1.3 million due to greater-than-expected trade to date.
- Thailand is boosted 300,000 tons to 3.8 million on account of strong shipments to date, particularly from Ukraine and Argentina.