IGC raises world grains production, consumption projections

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  • The outlook for 2016/17 grains production continues to improve, with output potentially the second highest ever.
  • With increases for food, feed and industrial uses, total consumption is seen exceeding 2bn t for only the second time.
  • Grains stocks will likely grow again, with much of the increase in China. Lower shipments to China contribute to a predicted drop in world trade.
  • Global soyabean inventories are anticipated to be down for the second consecutive year, receding by 15 percent, including a fall in leading exporters.
  • The 2016/17 world rice outturn could recover strongly from the previous season’s drought affected outcome.

Following revisions for wheat and maize, the projection for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2016/17 is 10m t higher m/m (month-on-month), at 2,015m, an increase of 1 percent year-on-year and the second biggest harvest ever, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest market report.

It said wheat prospects are better than before in the EU, the US and Russia, although Morocco’s crop is cut to a nine-year low. Maize figures are raised for the US and Argentina, but lowered for China and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the report, the projection for global grains consumption is also up by 10m t m/m, to 2,009m, higher by 1 percent y/y; use is now expected to broadly match the 2014/15 record. Following increases from before for feed and industrial uses, maize demand is seen exceeding 1bn t for the first time. Taking into account bigger opening inventories than previously projected, the world 2016/17 carry over is boosted by 2m t, to a fresh peak of 474m (+6m y/y), with China potentially accounting for over 40 percent of the total, it said.

The IGC lifted the trade forecast by 3m t, to 318m, with maize shipments now expected to be close to the all-time high that is anticipated in 2015/16.

Owing to a further downgrade to crop outlooks in South America, the 2015/16 world soyabean outturn is cut by nearly 5m t, to 314m, down by 2 percent y/y. Prospects for 2016/17 are highly tentative, the report said, but added that production could rebound to 320m t on a marginal increase in plantings and improved yields. However, reflecting a reduced forecast for opening stocks, coupled with growing use, aggregate carryovers are placed about 3m t lower than in April, at 29m, the second consecutive annual contraction, linked to a fall in the major exporters, it said.

According to the report, trade is anticipated at a new high on firm demand from Asian processors. Global rice stocks in 2015/16 are seen declining by 9 percent y/y because of the impact of dry weather on crops in Asia and a further rise in uptake,. With the projection little changed from April, the 2016/17 world outturn could recover by 13m t y/y, to 486m. Nevertheless, owing to thinner carry-in stocks and growing use, end-season inventories may drop by 2 percent, to a seven-year low of 99m t. The figure is lifted by more than 5m t m/m owing to historical revisions, the report said.

 

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