Vietnam’s overall coffee production in the 2015/16 marketing year remains unchanged at 29.3 million bags, the United States Agriculture Department (USDA) said in a report, as it lowered the 2016/17 output by 7 percent due to adverse weathe conditions.
The report forecast the 2016/17 production at 27.3 million bags due to the impact on crop by El Nino and possibly El Nina too.
The first rains with moderate intensity occurred over the Central Highlands in the last week of April, providing water and improving soil moisture significantly for coffee trees. However, monthly rainfall in the first half of April is slightly lower than the same period last year; and rainfall by April in both calendar 2016 and 2015 were much lower than the average of the last 10 years, the report said.
Most water reservoirs are storing about 30 percent to 50 percent of their designed capacity. Average relative humidity was 6.4 percent lower compared to the same period in past 5 years, it added.
“In MY2015/16, there was an increase in production of about 7 percent, compared to MY2014/15 when there was also a dry weather conditions. For MY2016/17, the flowering and fruit-setting process (from January to early March 2016) was met with good weather which was favorable. Some coffee flowering areas in February and early March suffered from limited rainfall, but farmers still had access to enough surface and underground water sources to irrigate their plantations,” it said.
The USDA estimates a production reduction up to 7 percent compared to MY2015/16 crop. On the other hand, production may decline further (15 percent) should the drought be prolonged or follow by unfavourable rains caused by La Nina, the report said.