World cotton production seen rising by 7% in 2016-17


World cotton production in 2016-17 is expected to increase by 7% to 22.4 million tons as a 9% increase to 753 kg/ha in the world average yield offsets a 2% contraction in world cotton area to 29.7 million hectares, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said in its latest crop report.

It said India will remain the world’s largest cotton producer, although its production is forecast to remain unchanged from 2015/16 at 5.8 million tons.

“Output in China is projected to decrease by 4% to 4.6 million tons while production in the United States is expected to grow by 24% to 3.5 million tons,” the report forecast.

After a 34% drop in production due to adverse weather, competition with other crops, low prices and an outbreak of pink bollworm, Pakistan’s cotton production is expected to recover by 24% to 1.9 million tons in 2016/17, it said, adding that after facing lower inventories in 2016 due to strong export demand, cotton production is forecast to increase by 8% to 1.4 million tons in Brazil.

World ending stocks increased by 140% from 2009/10 to 2014/15, when they reached a world record of 22.2 million tons. In 2015/16, the drop in world production led to a 14% reduction in stocks to 19.1 million tons. World ending stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 million tons at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks.

“In 2016/17, world cotton consumption is projected to remain unchanged at 23.8 million tons, despite the widening gap between polyester prices and international cotton prices. Mill use is expected to rise in three of the top ten consuming countries – Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the United States, where consumption is forecast to increase by 12% to 1.2 million tons, 13% to 1.1 million tons and 1% to 762,000 tons, respectively. This will offset losses in China, Turkey and Brazil, where mill use is projected to decrease by 2% to 7.2 million tons, 3% to 1.45 million tons, and 12% to 645,000 tons, respectively,” the ICAC said.

According to the report, world cotton imports are forecast to increase by 4% to 7.5 million tons in 2016/17. Bangladesh is projected to increase its volume of imports by 10% to 1.2 million tons, while imports by Vietnam are expected to rise by 15% to 1.1 million tons.

Exports from the United States are expected to rise by 26% to 2.5 million tons, as the abundant crop this season will provide a large exportable surplus. India on the other hand is likely to see its exports fall by 34% to 825,000 tons as stocks are replenished after declining by 21% to just under 2 million tons by the end of 2015/16, it added.

                                                 WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
  2014/15 2015/16 2016/17   2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
          Changes from previous month
  Million Tons   Million Tons
Production 26.20 21.02 22.40   0.00 -0.08 -0.14
Consumption 24.20 23.81 23.75   0.00 0.03 -0.05
Imports 7.57 7.21 7.48   0.00 -0.01 0.07
Exports 7.81 7.52 7.48   0.07 0.03 0.07
Ending Stocks 22.24 19.14 17.78   -0.07 -0.23 -0.32


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