USDA forecasts global oilseeds production in 2017/18 higher at record 577 million tonnes

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By IAC Staff

Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month to a record 577 million tons, the U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) said in its latest supply and demand report, which raised soybean crop prospects for the United States and Russia partially offset by reductions in India and Canada.

Here are the details from its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report:

  • Global peanut forecast is lowered on reductions in India’s crop more than offsetting gains in the United States.
  • A larger rapeseed crop is projected for the European Union which more than offsets reductions for Canada and the United States.
  • Cottonseed production is raised for the United States and China, partly offsetting a reduction in Australia. Higher sunflowerseed output is projected for Russia.
  • Global soybean imports are down this month on reductions for the European Union and Russia, while soybean exports are up on higher projections for the United States, offset by reductions in Argentina.
  • Global soybean stocks are raised this month with higher stocks in the United States, Argentina, and Brazil, offsetting smaller stocks in Canada and India.
  • The U.S. season average farm price for soybeans is lowered $0.10 this month to $9.30 per bushel.

Castor oil seeds

The USDA, however, left its 2016/17 forecast for global oilseed production virtually unchanged this month.

  • The sunflowerseed and rapeseed production estimates are raised for the European Union but are offset by reductions in the palm kernel crop in Malaysia and cottonseed in Australia.
  • Global soybean imports are down on smaller shipments to the European Union and Russia which more than offset gains in Vietnam.
  • Exports are forecast lower this month on reductions for Argentina and Brazil exceeding gains in the United States.
  • Global soybean ending stocks are raised this month on increases in Argentina and Brazil more than offsetting reductions in the United States.
  • The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged this month at $9.50 per bushel.

2017/18 Outlook Changes

  • United States
  • Soybean exports are raised 2.0 tons to 60.6 million in response to a larger crop projection.
  • Soybean meal exports are lowered 181,000 tons, following a reduced crush forecast.
  • Argentina
  • Soybean exports are down 500,000 tons to 8.0 million in line with reductions for 2016/17.
  • Soybean meal exports are slashed 1.1 million tons to 31.2 million reflecting lower crush. Prospects for soybean meal production reflect the slowdown in 2016/17 production and exports.
  • Canada
  • Rapeseed exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 11.0 million, following a lower production
  • Rapeseed meal exports are down 100,000 tons to 4.6 million on lower crush.
  • China
  • Rapeseed meal imports are raised 120,000 tons to 700,000 and soybean meal exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.4 million. Both of these are in response to strong protein meal demand.
  • European Union
  • Soybean imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 14.6 million, reflecting lower trade in the current marketing year as well as a larger rapeseed crop in 2017/18.
  • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 19.5 million and rapeseed meal imports are cut 120,000 tons to 300,000, both on higher rapeseed crush.
  • Palm oil imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 6.5 million, on greater domestic supplies of rapeseed oil.
  • India
  • Peanut exports are slashed 350,000 tons to 800,000 on lower crop prospects.
  • Soybean oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 4.2 million in response to a lower crush and smaller supplies.
  • Japan
  • Palm kernel meal imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.1 million on a growing renewable energy market and stronger demand for biomass.
  • Mexico
  • Soybean meal imports are cut 250,000 tons to 2.5 million with growing reliance on soybean imports for domestic crush.
  • Russia
  • Soybean imports are down 500,000 tons to 1.8 million and soybean meal imports are slashed in half to 200,000 tons, following a larger soybean crop.
  • Sunflowerseed oil exports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.2 million in response to improved sunflowerseed crop prospects.
  • Thailand
  • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 3.0 million in line with reduction in protein meal demand in 2016/17.
  • Venezuela
  • Soybean meal imports are reduced 100,000 tons to 565,000 as economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
  • Vietnam
  • Soybean meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 5.5 million, reflecting strong protein meal consumption growth in 2016/17 and expectations that this trend will continue in 2017/18.

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