World oil demand revised up; seen at 111 million bpd by 2040 – OPEC

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Global primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 percent in the period to 2040, with oil expected to have the highest share of the energy mix as demand increases to 111 million barrels/day, OPEC said in its latest World Oil Outlook report

Key highlights of the report, which can be seen here:

  • Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35% in the period to 2040;
  • Oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040;
  • Long-term oil demand has been revised upward by 7 million barrels a day (mb/d) compared to the WOO 2016, with total demand at over 111 mb/d by 2040;
  • There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040;
  • Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 mb/d, to reach 67 mb/d by 2040;
  • Long-term demand growth comes mainly from the road transportation (4 mb/d), petrochemicals (3.9 mb/d) and aviation (2.9 mb/d) sectors;
  • Oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in Developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the OECD region;
  • The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12% of the car fleet by 2040;
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 mb/d in 2016 to 62 mb/d in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to4 mb/d by 2040, with US tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025;
  • The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to 4 mb/d by 2040;
  • The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46% by 2040, from 40% in 2016;
  • Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 5 mb/d by 2040;
  • Capacity rationalisation remains a long-term requirement, with some 6-8 mb/d of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilisation rates of at least 80%;
  • Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 5 mb/d between 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports.
  • In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion.

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