Global coffee production is seen rising to a fresh record in 2017/18 thanks to a recovery in robusta production that will offset a decline in the arabica variety, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said its latest monthly report.
It said world coffee production in 2017/18 is provisionally estimated at around 158.78 million bags, which represents an increase of 0.7% compared to 2016/17, which has been revised up to 157.69 million bags.
“Total production of Arabica is estimated to decrease by 1.1% to 97.32 million bags compared to 98.42 million bags last year, as lower production of Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals are only partially offset by increases in Other Milds. An increase of 3.7% is expected in Robustas, due largely to a rebound in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer,” the ICO report said.
After reaching 55 million bags in 2016/17, Brazil’s output is estimated to decline to 51.5 million bags in 2017/18. Compared to crop year 2016/17, production of Arabica decreased by 6.4% to 38.63 million bags.
In addition to the expected biennial downturn of the Arabica crop, smaller bean sizes and an outbreak of the coffee berry borer also contributed to the decline in production.
Brazil exported 2.79 million bags of coffee in November 2017, 15% lower than one year ago. Its shipments in the first two months of coffee year 2017/18 are estimated at 5.66 million bags, a decrease of 14.7% compared to one year ago, the ICO added.
In 2016/17, Vietnam’s production declined by 11.1% to 25.54 million bags due to overly hot and dry weather. However, output in Vietnam is provisionally estimated to increase to 28.5 million bags in crop year 2017/18, 11.6% higher than in the previous year.
“Sufficient rainfall for crop year 2017/18 is expected to improve nutrient uptake and increase yields. Exports during the first two months of crop year 2017/18 are estimated at 3.08 million bags, down 19.4% from one year ago as excessive rains have delayed harvesting of the new crop.