Global coffee production estimates raised slightly by ICO.

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Total global coffee production for crop year 2017/18 is estimated at 158.93 million bags compared to 157.69 million bags in the previous crop year, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said.

The share of Arabica in this total is estimated at 62.2% compared to 64.8% in 2016/17 while Robustas’ share of world production is estimated up from 35.2% in 2016/17 to 37.8% in 2017/18, the ICO said in a statement.

Decreases in Colombian Milds of 4.6% to 15.21 million bags and in Brazilian Naturals of 8.3% to 50.95 million bags offset an increase of 6.6% to 32.68 million bags for Other Milds.

The total output of Robustas is estimated at 60.09 million bags in 2017/18, 8.2% higher than the previous crop year.

Production in crop year 2017/18 is estimated to rise in all regions aside from South America where total production is estimated at 71.44 million bags, down 4.9% from crop year 2016/17.

This is due largely to a decline in Brazilian output to 51.5 million bags compared with 55 million bags in 2016/17.

Conab, the Brazilian Government Agency, produced its first estimate for Brazil’s output in 2018/19 with a midpoint of 56.48 million bags, which is an increase of 25.6% from 2017/18.

Conab’s estimate includes increases in both Arabica and Robusta.

In 2018/19, Brazil’s Arabica crop will enter a positive swing in the biennial cycle. Improved yields in Espírito Santo, Bahia and Rondônia are the main contributors to the increase in the Robusta crop.

Production in Colombia is estimated at 14 million bags, down 4.3% from the 14.63 million bags reached last year. Colombia’s output during the first quarter of coffee year 2017/18 is 10% lower than one year ago, as decreases in October and November outweigh a slight increase during December. The lower production in these months is attributed to excessive rains although it may improve yields for the mitaca crop.

Production up in Africa, Asia and Oceania

Africa’s production is estimated at 17.93 million bags, 4.7% higher than the previous crop year. Output in the region’s two largest producers are both expected to increase by 4.8% to 7.65 million bags in Ethiopia and 2.8% to 5.1 million bags in Uganda, the ICO said.

Crop year 2017/18 would be the fifth season of production growth for Ethiopia, which has benefitted from increased investment in the sector and support from the government, it added.

According to the ICO forecast, regional output in Asia & Oceania is expected to increase 5.9% to 47.64 million bags.

Estimated production in Vietnam amounts to 28.5 million bags, 11.6% higher than in 2016/17.

India’s production is estimated up 12.3% to 5.84 million bags due to higher yields boosted by sufficient rainfall and trees planted in new areas now becoming productive.

Increases in India and Vietnam will offset a 6% estimated decline to 10.8 million bags in Indonesia’s production.

World exports in December 2017 totalled 10.62 million bags, the ICO said, which is 0.7% higher than the 10.54 million bags shipped in December 2016. This brings the total volume exported in the first quarter of coffee year 2017/18 to 28.36 million bags, down 6.7% from 2016/17

Total shipments during calendar year 2017 reached 119.63 million bags, unchanged from calendar year 2016. Exports of both Colombian Milds and Other Milds were higher for the year, up 1.4% and 14.2%, respectively. However, these increases were outweighed by lower levels in Brazilian Naturals (-2.8%) and Robustas (-5.8%).

Shipments from Brazil in 2017 reached 30.64 million bags, 10.6% lower than in 2016, and Vietnam’s exports were estimated to be down 14.4% to 23.60 million bags.

For calendar year 2017, shipments from Colombia were 13.13 million bags, 2.3% higher compared to 2016 and India exported 7.5% more coffee, reaching 6.54 million bags.

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