USDA predicts tightening global soybean stocks in 2017-18

World soybean and corn ending stocks are expected to be tighter than earlier thought, while projected wheat stocks were raised in the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In a report released on 10 April, the USDA lowered its global soybean ending stocks forecast for the current 2017/18 marketing year to 90.8 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 94.4 million. That would be down from the 96.7 million tonne carryout seen in 2016/17, but still well above the 78.5 million tonnes reported in 2015/16.

A seven million tonne drop in the expectations on the size of Argentina’s crop more than made up for a two million tonne increase in the Brazilian production forecast.

The USDA now sees Argentina’s soybean crop at only 40.0 million tonnes, which compares with the March estimate of 47.0 million and the year-ago level of 57.8 million. At 115.0 million tonnes, Brazil’s crop is now expected to be slightly above last year’s 114.1 million tonne crop.

Projected world corn ending stocks were lowered to 197.8 million tonnes, from 199.2 million in March.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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