Global oilseed demand growth forecast to outpace production again – USDA

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Global oilseed production is forecast to grow slightly in 2018/19 with soybean production projected up, as Argentina is forecast to rebound from this year’s drought, offsetting year-over-year declines in production of the United States, the U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) said.

It said in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that rapeseed and sunflower seed are both forecast to continue their growth in production.

“The palm kernel crop is expected higher in line with palm oil production. Peanut and cottonseed production are expected to decline,” the report said.

Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise, led by growth in China’s soybean crush.

Global soybean demand, measured by total domestic consumption, is expected to grow at a solid rate, slightly lower than production growth and consumption of other oilseeds is expected up as well, with the exception of cottonseed where global supplies are reduced, the USDA said.

The WASDE report forecast global oilseed trade to rise on higher demand from China.

Global ending stocks are projected to fall, the USDA said, as lower carry-in stocks coupled with increased consumption will result in lower ending stocks for 2018/19. While the ending stocks of palm kernel and rapeseed are expected to grow, all other oilseed stocks, led by cottonseed and peanuts, are expected to fall, it said.

According to the USDA, global protein meal production is expected to grow slightly in 2018/19, tempered by a slight decline in fish meal production.

“Global protein meal consumption is also forecast to rise, mainly driven by robust demand from China. Trade in protein meals is expected to grow as well, with soybean meal exports forecast up. Sunflower seed meal exports are projected up sharply, while peanut meal exports are forecast to fall,” the report added.

It said global vegetable oil production is expected to grow modestly, with all major oils forecast up except for olive oil.

“Palm, soybean, and palm kernel oil production are all expected to see a healthy jump on higher crop estimates. Strong soybean meal demand will spur higher crush volumes, resulting in higher soybean oil production.”

Both rapeseed oil and sunflower seed oil are projected to experience modest growth.

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