India’s GDP seen up 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 — ICRA

Rating agency ICRA expects India’s economy to have grown by 7.4 percent in the January-March 2017-18 quarter against a 7.2 percent rise in the previous quarter, thanks to a good rabi crop harvest and improved corporate earnings.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to come out with gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2017-18 and provisional annual estimates for the year 2017-18 on May 31.

“The domestic GDP growth rate is expected to improve to 7.4 per cent in Q4 FY2018 from 7.2 per cent in Q3 FY2018, exceeding the implicit forecast of 7.1 per cent embedded in the CSO’s Second Advance Estimate of National Income for 2017-18,” ICRA said in a statement.

According to ICRA, the growth of the Indian gross value added (GVA) at basic prices in year-on-year (YoY) terms is likely to record a considerable recovery to 7.3 per cent in Q4 FY2018 from 6.7 per cent in Q3 FY2018, thereby rebounding above 7 per cent after a gap of five quarters.

This revival in the fourth quarter, relative to the previous three months, is expected to be broad-based, supported by an uptick in industry (to 7.7 per cent from 6.8 per cent), agriculture, forestry and fishing (to 4.5 per cent from 4.1 per cent), and services (to 7.8 per cent from 7.7 per cent), it said.

“The uptick in economic activity that set in during the second half of 2017, is expected to have strengthened in Q4 FY2018, led by a healthy rabi harvest, robust volume growth in various sectors, an improvement in corporate earnings and a favourable base effect,” ICRA said.

The rating agency further said it expects a mild pickup in growth in the services sector, reflecting the improvement in diesel and petrol consumption, service sector exports, passengers carried by domestic airlines, cargo handled at major ports and railway revenue carrying freight.

Shekhar Ghosh is a communications consultant and and former journalist, who has edited and written for publications such as like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today and Outlook.

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