Global oilseed production in 2018/19 forecast higher in August – USDA

Global oilseed production in 2018/19 forecast higher this month at nearly 603.0 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report on Friday.

  • Soybean production is up at 367.1 million tons on gains in the United States.
  • The rapeseed crop forecast is lower this month as reductions for the European Union exceed gains for Russia and Ukraine.
  • The sunflowerseed production forecast is significantly higher this month on gains for Ukraine, Russia, the European Union, Moldova, Serbia, and Turkey.
  • Global soybean imports are raised, driven by projected gains for the European Union.
  • Soybean exports are up with projected increases for the United States and Serbia.
  • The global stocks forecast is significantly higher this month on larger supplies in the United States, Argentina, and China that more than offset reductions for Brazil.
  • The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected down $0.35 at $8.90 per bushel. 2017/18
  • Global oilseed production is slightly lower this month at 573.4 million tons following reduced palm kernel crop estimates for Malaysia.
  • Global soybean imports are down this month on lower shipments to China.
  • Exports are higher with gains for the United States and Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are down this month on reductions for the United States and Brazil offsetting gains in Argentina.
  • The U.S. season average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $9.35 per bushel.

Read full report here

China 2018/19 soybean consumption prospects down further; 2017/18 import and crush lowered.

In line with this year’s reduced crush, 2018/19 soybean crush is lowered by 1.5 million tons to 95.0 million. USDA forecasts China oilseed meals consumption at 92.3 million tons (soybean meal-equivalent basis), which represents slowing growth in annual consumption at 3.2 percent.

This, the report said, is below last month’s estimate of 3.8 percent.

Large pork supplies that are pressuring prices, along with higher soybean import prices that are eroding crush margins, have significantly slowed soybean processing, the USDA said, adding that as a result it was further lowering China’s 2017/18 soybean crush this month to 91.0 million tons.

Lower meal output is partially offset with higher fishmeal and sunflowerseed meal imports.

In 2017/18, China is projected to consume 89.5 million tons of oilseed meals (soybean meal-equivalent basis), 4.0 percent above last year. This is below last month’s forecast of 4.6 percent annual growth.

Between October 2017 and July 2018, China imported nearly 77.0 million tons of soybeans, almost replicating last marketing year. Based on available trade-to-date information, USDA is cutting 2017/18 China soybean imports by 1.0 million tons to 96.0 million.

“Even though, soybean arrivals in recent months have been below expectations, partly in response to port congestion, USDA still expects robust imports in August and September, mostly Brazilian origin,” the report said.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *