India’s cotton output forecast unchanged from last month, says industry body

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has retained its cotton crop estimate for the ongoing crop year 2017-18 at 365 lakh bales of 170 kgs each i.e. at the same level as in its estimate made in the previous month.

The CAI has projected total cotton supply upto 31st August 2018 at 407.50 lakh bales which consists the arrival of 358.00 lakh bales upto 31st August 2018. In addition to this, a CAI committee has estimated imports at 13.50 lakh bales. The opening stock at the beginning of the season as on 1st October 2017 has been estimated at 36 lakh bales.

Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption for 11 months i.e. from October 2017 to August 2018 at 297 lakh bales at 27 lakh bales per month while the shipment of cotton till 31st August 2018 has been estimated at 69 lakh bales.

The stock at the end of August 2018 is estimated at 41.50 lakh bales including 30.40 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 11.10 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).

The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2017-18 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. upto 30th September 2018 at 416 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which includes opening stock of 36 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 70 lakh bales.

The carry-over stock at the end of the 2017-18 seasons is estimated by the CAI at 22 lakh bales.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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