Global 2018/19 wheat, rise supplies, coarse grains output raised – USDA

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the 2018/19 forecast for global wheat and rice supplies, and coarse grains output in its latest monthly report, and said the oilseed outlook included higher production, lower trade, and increased stocks compared to last month.

Wheat:

Global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.

The Russian crop is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest results to date in the winter wheat region and continued excellent weather in the spring wheat belt. Kazakhstan is raised 0.5 million tons also on excellent spring wheat conditions, the USDA said in is World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.

Production is increased 2.7 million tons in India to a record 99.7 million on updated government data. These increases are partially offset by a 2.0-million-ton decrease in Australia and a 1.0-million-ton decrease in Canada, both reflecting continued dry conditions during the growing season.

Global exports are lowered 2.5 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Canada, both on smaller crops.

Indonesia and Iran imports are down 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively.

Global use is raised 2.3 million tons primarily on a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia feed and residual use and a 1.0-million-ton increase for EU feed and residual use.

With total supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 261.3 million but are 5 percent below last year’s record.

Coarse grains

Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast up 5.1 million tons to 1,347.2 million.

The 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month.

Corn production is forecast higher than last month with projected increases for the EU, Angola, Paraguay, Turkey, and Serbia more than offsetting declines for Canada, South Africa, and Guatemala.

The USDA raised the EU corn production, mostly reflecting increases for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and France. In both Bulgaria and Romania, yields are expected to be record high.

World barley production is lowered, with reductions for the EU, Australia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for Kazakhstan and Russia.

Corn exports for 2018/19 are raised for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, USDA said, but lowered for Canada and South Africa. Imports are raised for the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Guatemala, with partly offsetting declines for Algeria and Saudi Arabia.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are down from last month, with declines for Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting increases for Angola, Paraguay, the EU, Brazil, Turkey, and India.

Global corn stocks, at 157.0 million tons, are up 1.5 million from last month.

Rice

Global 2018/19 rice supplies are increased to 632.8 million tons, primarily on higher production and beginning stocks for India.

World production is fractionally lower as reductions in China and Bangladesh more than offset India’s increased production.

Global consumption is increased by 0.6 million tons to 488.4 million, led by India. World trade is raised to a record 49.5 million tons on higher India exports.

Global ending stocks increase 0.8 million tons to 144.4 million as higher projected stocks for India, Cote d’Ivoire, and Burma more than offset reduced stocks for China.

Oilseeds

The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, reduced trade, and increased stocks compared to last month.

Higher production of soybeans and cottonseed more than offsets lower forecasts for peanuts, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed.

Soybean production is increased 2.2 million tons, with larger crops for the United States and China that are partly offset by lower projections for Canada, India, and Uruguay.

Global soybean exports for 2018/19 are reduced 1.1 million tons to 156.9 million, with lower shipments for Canada and Uruguay.

China’s 2018/19 soybean imports are reduced 1 million tons to 94 million as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continues into the next marketing year.

Partly offsetting this change are higher imports for Egypt and Iran. Other notable oilseed trade changes include lower palm oil imports for India in 2017/18, with export reductions for Malaysia and Indonesia.

Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are projected 2.3 million tons higher, with increased stocks for the United States and Argentina that are partly offset by reduced stocks for Brazil

Cotton

Larger 2018/19 world cotton production mostly offsets lower beginning stocks, and world ending stocks are only slightly higher this month.

Beginning stocks are reduced for India and the United States due to revisions in 2017/18 estimates. Production is raised for China, Brazil, and the United States but is lowered for Australia.

Global consumption is increased 300,000 bales due to higher expected use in India, and trade is unchanged.

World ending stocks are projected about 400,000 bales higher this month, at 77.5 million bales, equivalent to 61 percent of world consumption.

If realised, this stocks/use ratio would be its lowest in 8 years, but higher than in virtually every other year before 2010/11.

Prashant has worked in the publishing industry for 17 years. His keen interest in commodities developed while working for organisations such as like Thomson Reuters, Wolters Kluwer & McGraw-Hill eventually brought him here. In his free time, Prashant consults with businesses in the digital space.

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