FAO raises its 2018 cereal production forecast, still below 2017 record

The UN food agency FAO has raised its forecast for this year’s global cereal production to 2 591 million tonnes, still 2.4 percent below the record high of 2017.

Reduced rainfall in Australia and Canada are expected to lower wheat yields, which, however, should be offset by higher outputs in Algeria and the Russian Federation. U.S. maize production is expected to reach its second highest level on record, more than offsetting downward revisions made for Russia, it said in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief,

Global rice production is anticipated to rise 1.3 percent, surpassing last year’s all-time high, spurred by evidence of greater Asian plantings than previously expected, especially in India.

FAO said it expects world cereal utilisation to rise to 2 647 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season, up 1.1 percent from the estimated level for the previous year. Global trade in cereals is expected to approach 417 million tonnes, about 1.0 percent less than the record level of the 2017/18 marketing season. International trade volumes of wheat and rice are expected to decline, while those for maize to increase.

World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2019 are forecast at 751.3 million tonnes, about 7 percent below their record-high opening level, with significant drawdowns of wheat inventories expected in the European Union and the Russian Federation.

Prashant has worked in the publishing industry for 17 years. His keen interest in commodities developed while working for organisations such as like Thomson Reuters, Wolters Kluwer & McGraw-Hill eventually brought him here. In his free time, Prashant consults with businesses in the digital space.

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