CAI cuts Indian cotton production estimate to 343.25 lakh bales

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised downward the cotton production estimate for the country by 4.75 lakh bales, pegging it at 343.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each for the current season 2018-19 (October-September).

The cotton industry body, which had last month estimated India’s cotton output at 348 lakh bales for this season, said unfavourable weather conditions would affect the crop in Gujarat, India’s largest cotton-producing state, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Odisha.

The association revised the crop estimate downwards for Gujarat by 2 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 1 lakh bales, Karnataka by 1 lakh bales and Odisha by 75,000 bales.

The association has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 51 lakh bales, 18 lakh bales less compared to 69 lakh bales last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2018-19 season is estimated at 15.25 lakh bales.

The committee’s estimated cotton consumption for October is 27 lakh bales while the export shipment of cotton during October 2018 has been put at 2.50 lakh bales, said a CAI statement.

The stock at the end of October 2018 is estimated at 20.63 lakh bales including 16.53 lakh bales with textile mills, while the remaining 4.10 lakh bales are estimated to be held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and others like MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.

The projected yearly balance sheet for the season 2018-19 drawn by the CAI has an estimated total cotton supply till end of the season, i.e. up to September 30, 2018 at 390.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which includes opening stock of 23 lakh bales at the beginning of the season and imports of 24 lakh bales which are estimated to be higher by 9 lakh bales compared to the imports figure of 15 lakh bales estimated for the 2017-18 crop year.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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