IMF retains India’s FY20 growth forecast at 7.5%; CRISIL predicts a modest recovery at 7.3%

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its growth projection for Indian economy at 7.5 per cent for 2019-20 and said it is likely to accelerate to 7.7 per cent in 2020-21.

This comes on a day when China announced that its GDP recorded its lowest growth rate in 28 years at 6.6 per cent (for 2018). This is lower than the IMF’s estimate of 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.2 per cent in 2019 and 2020.

With the latest outlook, India will remain the fastest-growing economy in the world, at least for the next two years. The IMF report says that India’s economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from low oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected as inflation pressures ease.

The latest growth projection by the IMF is slightly higher than India’s Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) estimate of 7.2 per cent, but lower than the RBI’s estimate of 7.4 per cent. But it is in line with the World Bank’s estimate of 7.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, credit rating agency CRISIL Research has said in its latest report that Indian economy is likely to witness a modest uptick to 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020,

Fiscal 2019 was a year of recovery from demonetisation and the initial disruption caused by the Goods and Service Tax implementation. The economy has so far fired mainly on the public investment cylinder, and is estimated to grow at 7.2 per cent (FY19). Private consumption has disappointed. Exports, however, have performed well, presenting a buoy to the manufacturing sector, the agency said.

In fiscal 2019, exports performed well, growing 12.1 per cent, led by a low base, easing of constraints posed by GST implementation and lingering tailwind of global trade revival in 2017. The spur was also reflected in the sharp pick-up in manufacturing GDP growth to 8.3 per cent compared with 5.7 per cent in fiscal 2018. But gains on the external front were offset with imports rising faster than exports.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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