Global oilseed output seen lower; cotton output, ending stocks seen higher – USDA

The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, crush, and increased stocks compared to last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest monthly report.

Global oilseed production is down 0.2 million tons, with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher rapeseed and cottonseed, it said, adding that soybean production was reduced 0.9 million tons to 360.1 million on lower production for Brazil and Paraguay.

Production for Brazil is down 0.5 million tons to 116.5 million, reflecting dry weather conditions and lower yields for Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias, the report said.

Global oilseed crush is down 0.5 million tons mainly on lower soybean crush for China, which is down on slower-than-expected pace to date, it added.

According to the report, China’s soybean crush pace is expected to increase during the second half of the marketing year as the South American harvest advances and leads to increased global supplies.

Global oilseed ending stocks are up 0.8 million tons to 121.7 million, with soybeans accounting for 0.5 million of the increase.


The USDA kept the U.S. 2018/19 cotton supply and demand estimates unchanged from last month. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 69.0 to 71.0 cents per pound was reduced 2 cents, as the reported average price for January fell below previous expectations.

According to the report, this month’s 2018/19 world cotton estimates show higher production and ending stocks, and slightly lower trade. Production is estimated up 350,000 bales in Brazil on higher area and 200,000 bales up in Pakistan based on arrivals at gins.

Production is 100,000 bales lower in Australia due to weather. World trade is forecast 140,000 bales lower with reductions for Brazil and Indonesia on the export and import sides based on activity to date. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are forecast 590,000 bales higher this month, at 76.1 million bales. This would be 5.1 million bales below their revised 2017/18 level, the USDA added.

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