USDA reduces global wheat supply estimates, coarse grain output; rice supplies raised on Indian output

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced Global wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Iraq.

Projected 2018/19 world trade is fractionally higher as larger EU and Brazil exports more than offset reductions for the United States and Mexico, it said in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The EU is increased 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million as its recent improved export competiveness is expected to continue for the remainder of the trade year, the USDA said, adding that global imports are raised for Algeria, Morocco, and the Philippines while decreased for Bangladesh, the EU, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Projected 2018/19 world consumption is reduced 5.1 million tons with India accounting for 3.0 million of the decrease as its total wheat consumption is lowered to 95.0 million, compared to last year’s 95.8 million, it said.

This reduction is based on an upward revision to the official Indian government wheat stocks estimate for 2018/19. Global ending stocks are increased 3.0 million tons to 270.5 million, down 3 percent from last year’s record.

Coarse Grains

The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is down slightly to 1,371.9 million metric tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, virtually unchanged trade, greater use, and reduced stocks relative to last month, the USDA said.

Brazil corn production is unchanged, with increased yield expectations offset by a reduction in area. Faster-than-normal planting progress improves yield prospects for second-crop corn in the Center-West, while area is down reflecting updated expectations for both first and second-crop corn. Corn production is raised for India, but lowered for South Africa.

Australia coarse grain production is higher, as a forecast increase in barley more than offsets a reduction for sorghum.

Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Argentina and Ukraine and reduction for the United States. For 2017/18, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2019 are raised based on larger than expected late-season shipments. Partly offsetting is a reduction for Argentina.

China’s coarse grain imports for 2018/19 are lowered, reflecting lower forecast sorghum and barley imports. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised with lower sorghum and barley imports. Corn imports are raised for the EU and Canada.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Brazil, and Argentina.

Rice

Global 2018/19 rice supplies are raised 6.3 million tons to 664.2 million, mostly on a large increase for India production. India’s rice crop is raised 5.0 million tons to a record 116.0 million due to favourable summer rainfall and updated government data.

Bangladesh production is raised 0.5 million tons to 35.0 million also on favourable weather and increased harvested area. Global exports are reduced 0.4 million tons to 47.4 million but still remain record large.

Global consumption is raised 1.7 million tons to 492.0 million, led by a 1.1 million ton increase for India. With world supplies rising more than total use, global ending stocks are raised 4.6 million tons to 172.2 million to a new record.

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