The latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) gave the following projections for various crops for 2018/19.
World 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 2.1 million tons due mainly to increased beginning stocks that largely reflect multi-year revisions for Iran. Global production and exports are each reduced fractionally, but domestic consumption is lowered 2.9 million tons. The consumption change stems primarily from lower Iran and EU feed and residual use; Iran is lowered on the series revision and the EU reduction is based on more competitive corn prices and increased coarse grain disappearance. With supplies increasing and total use declining, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to 275.6 million.
The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is up 5.3 million tons to 1,377.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, greater use, and marginally higher stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised, reflecting improved yield prospects for second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area. Corn production is raised for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia, with reductions for the Philippines and Pakistan. WASDE-587-2 Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine with a partially offsetting reduction for the United States. Corn imports are raised for the EU and South Africa, with lower projections for Vietnam and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised from last month, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa that more than offset declines for Vietnam, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Argentina.
Global 2018/19 rice supplies are decreased by 0.4 million tons to 663.8 million with lower carryin stocks and production. Global production is down as reductions for Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines are not completely offset by higher production for Sri Lanka. World 2018/19 consumption is raised 0.4 million tons to 492.4 million on higher expected use in Pakistan and Sri Lanka more than offsetting reduced use in Laos and Mexico. Global 2018/19 trade is lowered marginally to 47.3 million tons as reduced exports by Pakistan, the EU, and the United States are not completely offset by higher exports from Cambodia, Peru, and Uruguay. Projected world ending stocks are adjusted lower this month to 171.4 million tons but remain record large.
The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include increased production, lower exports, and increased stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 2.0 million tons to 595.0 million mainly on higher soybean production for Brazil and rapeseed production for India. Production for Brazil is increased 0.5 million tons to 117.0 million, reflecting favorable weather in Rio Grande do Sul where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop is also revised higher, supported by recent industry estimates. Rapeseed production for India is raised 1.4 million tons to 8 million on information from India’s Solvent Extractors’ Association. WASDE-587-3 Global oilseed exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 177.1 million mainly on lower rapeseed trade between Canada and China. With lower rapeseed crush for China, imports are increased for other products, including sunflowerseed meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. Global oilseed ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 123.2 million, largely due to higher soybean stocks for Brazil and rapeseed stocks for Canada.
Lower world consumption this month results in higher projected 2018/19 ending stocks, with little net change in the other components of the global balance sheet. World mill use is forecast about 400,000 bales lower this month. A 300,000-bale decline in Turkey—and smaller declines in the United States and Vietnam—more than offset smaller increases elsewhere. Lower imports for India, Turkey, and Vietnam are largely offset by an upward revision for China. Lower exports for India and Burkina Faso are largely offset by Australia and Turkey. Higher production for China is largely offset by a decline for Burkina Faso. World ending stocks in 2018/19 are forecast about 360,000 bales higher this month, with an increase in China’s stocks more than offsetting a decline in stocks outside of China.