The critical monsoon that India eagerly awaits every year is expected to arrive on time is expected to have a sluggish start due to weak weather conditions, private forecaster Skymet said.
In its first forecast for the southwest monsoon, Skymet predicted below normal rains to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of long period average (LPA).
Arrival of Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands will be on May 22, with an error margin of +/- 2 days.
“Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Simultaneously, covering some parts of Northeast India as well. This will be preceded by intense pre-Monsoon rains over Kerala,” the forecaster predicted.
“All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula,” Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said in a statement.
According to Skymet, Monsoon 2019 probabilities for the June-Septmber are:
- 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
- 0% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
- 30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
- 55% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
- 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)