Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has forecast that India’s merchandise exports will increase from 81.9 billion dollars to 84 billion dollars with an expected growth rate of 2.5% during the first quarter (April to June) of 2019-20 over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
Of this, non-oil exports are likely to increase from 70.1 billion dollars to 73 billion dollars with an expected growth rate of 4.2 per cent.
The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI). Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports will continue to be released on a quarterly basis during the first week of June, September, December and March with continuous improvisation to the model.
For the year 2018-19, Exim Bank — based on the ELI model — had forecasted India’s merchandise exports to amount to 331.8 billion dollars which compares well with the official estimates of 331.02 billion dollars.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor and Coordinator at the Centre for Advanced Studies at Jadavpur University in Kolkata, Sarat Dhal, Director of Department of Economic and Policy Research at the Reserve Bank of India, N R Bhanumurthy, Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy and C Veeramani, Professor at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country on a quarterly basis based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July to September 2019 will be released in first week of September, according to a statement.