Global soybean output may fall 2% in 2019-20: USDA

Global soybean production in 2019-20 is forecast to reach 355.4 million tonnes, a 2 per cent year-on-year decline, as US soy harvest is estimated to decline due to low prices, high carry-over, weather issues, and uncertainty over trade with China, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In 2019-20, Brazil and US will continue to be the main global soybean suppliers accounting for nearly 85 per cent of global trade, while China is projected to remain the leader in global soy imports at 58 per cent of total purchases, the USDA said.

Brazil is expected to be the leading soybean exporter in 2019-20 with 75 million tonnes sales due to the preferential access to Chinese market amid the US-China trade dispute, the USDA said.

China soybean imports in 2019-20 are projected up 2.3 per cent on year to 87 million tonnes, it said.

The 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are estimated to decline by 0.4 million tonnes mainly reflecting lower carrying due to revisions to 2018/19 balance sheets. Beginning stocks for 2019/20 are reduced for Argentina and China offsetting higher stocks for the United States. For Argentina, stocks are lowered on a 1.5-million- tonnes increase to exports to 7.8 million tonnes for 2018/19 based on the recent pace of shipments. Beginning stocks are lowered for China due to a 1-million-tonne decrease in imports to 85 million tonnes for 2018/19.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *