CAI’s first estimate puts cotton output for 2019-20 at 354.5 lakh bales

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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated its cotton crop for the 2019-20 season at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is higher by 42.50 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s crop of 312 lakh bales.

The increase in crop estimated for the 2019-20 season is on account of higher acreage under cotton than that of the previous season. Moreover, the CAI estimates yields to be higher as the country has received a good rainfall this year. However, there are reports of damage to the crop in some pockets due to flooding on account of excess rains. Keeping this in mind, increase in crop is restricted to 13.62 per cent, the report said.

Yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30thSeptember 2020 at 403 lakh bales which consists of the opening stock of 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the 2019-20 crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated export of cotton for the season at 42 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 46 lakh bales.

The cotton-growing districts of Gujarat — including Saurashtra, North Gujarat and Kutch — witnessed heavy flooding and unseasonal rains, which dampened the prospects for a good crop. The arrivals have already been delayed by about 20 days across the West, Central and South due to the extended monsoon.

Domestic consumption is estimated at 315 lakh bales, while exports are estimated at 42 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 46 lakh bales.

In its estimate on India’ cotton crop, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had last month projected the crop size at 305 lakh US bales (each of 217.7 kg), or about 390 lakh India bales (each of 170 kg).

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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