World production in coffee year 2019/20 is projected to fall by 0.9% to 167.4 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO),
While Robusta output is projected to rise by 1.5% to 71.72 million bags, Arabica output is anticipated to decrease 2.7% to 95.68 million bags, it said in a statement, adding that the decline in Arabica production is largely due to Brazil as its 2019/20 crop is in the off-year of its biennial cycle.
As a result of this downturn, production in South America could decrease by 3.2% to 78.08 million bags. Output from Colombia is estimated to increase by 1% to 14 million bags, slightly higher than the volume produced in the last two years. Output from Asia & Oceania is estimated to rise by 1.9% to 49.58 million bags.
Vietnam’s output is anticipated to remain stable at 31.2 million bags in 2019/20. Indonesia’s production declined by 13.2% in crop year 2018/19, but is projected to recover by 16.8% to 11 million bags in 2019/20. India may experience another fall in production in 2019/20 due to unfavourable weather, reaching 5.31 million bags, which is 0.3% lower than in 2018/19 and the third consecutive year of decrease.
Central America & Mexico’s harvest is projected to grow by 0.9% to 21.54 million bags. Production from Honduras is projected to decrease by 0.4% to 7.3 million bags while Mexico’s output could increase by 1.1% to 4.4 million bags.
After a decline of 134,000 bags in 2018/19 due to unfavourable weather, production from Costa Rica is projected to rise by 8.6% to 1.55 million bags. Africa’s output is projected to decline by 0.6% to 18.2 million bags.
Increases in production from Ethiopia of 1.2% to 7.55 million bags and from Uganda of 1% to 4.75 million bags will likely be offset by declines from other African producers. Côte d’Ivoire’s output is projected to decrease by 4.1% to 2 million bags, following an increase of 41.6% to 2.09 million bags in 2018/19. Tanzania could see a decrease of 17.9% to 924,000 bags in 2019/20 as its Arabica crop enters an off-year.