USDA raises 2019-20 global oilseeds production forecast; also raises corn estimates

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for global 2019/20 oilseed production by 3.3 million tonnes to 574.6 million tonnes, with greater soybean, sunflower seed, and peanut production partly offset with lower rapeseed and cottonseed forecasts.

China’s soybean production is projected up 1.0 million tons to 18.1 million tonnes reflecting higher area and yield reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Sunflower seed production is forecast higher for Russia and Ukraine. Sunflower yields for both Ukraine and Russia established new record highs based on a continuing strong upward yield trend, seasonably cool temperatures, and timely mid-summer rainfall.

Other changes include increased peanut production for India, lower rapeseed production for Canada, higher cottonseed production for Brazil, and lower cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global 2019/20 soybean exports are reduced 0.6 million tons to 149.0 million on a lower forecast for Argentina. Soybean imports are reduced for Vietnam, offset by higher soybean meal imports. Global soybean stocks are forecast higher this month on increases for China and Brazil.

USDA also raised its estimates for global ending stocks for corn by 4.6 million tonnes to 300.56 million tonnes for the marketing year 2019-2020.  “Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month, largely reflecting increases for China, Bolivia, and Taiwan that more than offset declines for Canada, Colombia, and Paraguay,” USDA said.

The USDA also increased the forecast for global corn imports in 2019-2020 marginally to 167.56 million tonnes in December from the previous estimate of 167.44 million tonnes. Export estimates, however, have been lowered to 166.64 million tonnes from 167.05 million tonnes estimated earlier. The USDA kept global corn production estimate for 2019-20 largely unchanged at 1.108 billion tonnes from 1.102 billion tonnes projected earlier in November.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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