Rabi cereal output to rise by 4.52% in 2019-20: NBHC Corp estimates

The National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC), which has come out with its first rabi crop estimates for 2019-20, said the total rabi cereals production for 2019-20 is expected to increase by 4.52 per cent to 1,342.3 lakh tonnes from 1,284.3 lakh tonnes in 2018-19.

NBHC said the wheat area is expected to increase by 12.03 per cent to 334.4 lakh hectare and its production is expected to improve by 9.01 per cent to 1114 lakh tonnes.

The rabi rice acreage is recorded lower by 23.24 per cent at 26.1 lakh hectare against 34 lakh hectare last year and its production is expected to decrease significantly by 27.96 per cent to 103 lakh tonnes from 142.9 lakh tonnes in last year owing to marginal shift in farmers’ focus to pulses and wheat.

The total coarse cereals production is expected to increase by 4.92 per cent to 125.4 lakh tonnes in 2019-20. There is an increase in production of jowar (24.3 lakh tonnes), maize (82.8 lakh tonnes) and barley (18.3 lakh tonnes). The jowar acreage improved significantly by 19.12 per cent while the acreage of maize and barley are expected to show a marginal surge of 6.45 per cent and 6.85 per cent, respectively.

Moong acreage is expected to decline significantly by 26.32 per cent to 5.6 lakh hectare from 7.6 lakh hectare last year and production is expected to decline by 26.38 per cent to 3.8 lakh tonnes from 5.1 lakh tonnes last year. Urad acreage is expected to decline by 21.44 per cent to 7.4 lakh hectare from 9.4 lakh hectare last year and production is expected to decrease by 20.17 per cent to 5.6 lakh tonnes from 7 lakh tonnes last year.

Overall, the pulses acreage is expected to increase by 1.86 per cent to 159.2 lakh hectare from 156.3 lakh hectare last year and the production is expected to decline by 2.47 per cent at 151.7 lakh tonnes even as gram acreage and production are likely to increase by 10.14 per cent (106.4 lakh hectare) and 7.90  per cent (109.3 lakh hectare), respectively.

However, total oilseeds acreage is expected to decline marginally by 0.87 per cent at 79.7 lakh hectare from 80.4 lakh hectare last year and production is expected to decline by 7.39 per cent to 101.7 lakh tonnes from 109.8 lakh tonnes last year. Mustard acreage is expected to decline by 0.29 per cent to 69.2 lakh hectare and its production is expected to decline by 6.92 per cent to 86.9 lakh tonnes from 93.4 lakh tonnes last year.

Groundnut and sunflower production is estimated to be lower by 8.87 per cent (11.2 lakh tonnes) and 39.24 per cent (0.8 lakh tonnes), respectively.

Shekhar Ghosh is consulting editor, Indoasiancommodities.com. He has edited and written for publications like Business India, Business Standard, Business Today, Outlook and many other international publications. He can be reached at shekhar.ghosh@indoasiancommodities.in.

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