USDA forecasts higher global supplies of wheat in 2019/20, coarse grains raised, rice lowered

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The 2019/20 global outlook for wheat is for slightly higher supplies, but reduced trade and utilisation, the U.S Department of Agriculture said in its latest monthly report.

“Global production is lowered fractionally with several small mostly offsetting changes. Global exports are lowered 0.9 million tons, led by a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Russia, which was directly offset by an equivalent increase for the EU,” it said in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The Russia change is based primarily on newly imposed government export restrictions, the report said, while raising EU on less competition from Russia as well as expectations of a continued strong pace of exports. Several smaller export reductions are made; notably a 0.4-million-ton reduction for the United States and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Pakistan. Global imports are reduced 0.3 million tons each for Brazil, Japan, and Uzbekistan; a 0.3-million ton increase for Morocco is partially offsetting. 

“Aggregate world consumption is lowered 5.1 million tons following updates to several countries. The largest reductions are 2.0 million tons for China, 1.9 million for India, and 1.0 million for the EU,” th report said, adding that with supplies higher and use down, projected 2019/20 global ending stocks are raised 5.6 million tons to a record high 292.8 million. 

Coarse Grains

The global coarse grain production forecast for 2019/20 is up 1.0 million tons to 1,403.8 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, fractionally higher use, and larger stocks relative to last month, the report said.

Corn production is raised for the EU and Belarus, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos. Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for the EU, with a partially offsetting reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for South Korea, Turkey, Algeria, and Indonesia, with lower projections for Vietnam, Taiwan, Cuba, and Mexico. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Thailand, Taiwan, India, and Turkey that more than offset declines for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks, at 303.2 million tons, are up 5.8 million from last month. 

Rice:

The USDA revised the 2019/20 international outlook revised lower this month for supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Global 2019/20 rice supplies are lowered by 2.8 million tons to 671.8 million, mainly on production reductions for several Southeast Asian countries, led by Vietnam, Burma, and the Philippines. 

World 2019/20 consumption is lowered by 2.1 million tons to 490.2 million on decreases for several Asian and African countries with constrained supplies. Global 2019/20 trade is reduced 2.2 million tons to 42.2 million, primarily on export restrictions recently imposed by several Southeast Asian rice exporters in the form of bans, licenses, and quotas due to domestic supply concerns. 

Collectively, projected exports for Burma, Cambodia, and Vietnam are reduced 1.7 million tons or 15 percent this month. Additionally, India’s exports are lowered 0.3 million tons to 10.2 million as the current country-wide quarantine is expected to affect export activity. 

These factors have contributed to raising international rice prices to their highest levels in more than seven years. Projected world ending stocks are down 0.7 million tons this month but are still at a record high of 181.6 million with China accounting for 65 percent of the total, the USDA said in the report.

Oilseeds

Global soybean production is reduced 3.7 million tons to 338.1 million on lower production for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s production is lowered 2 million tons to 52 million, reflecting dry conditions in the main growing regions during the latter part of February into early March. 

Soybean production for Brazil is lowered 1.5 million tons to 124.5 million due to dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul while the crop was in pod-filling and maturation stages. 

Global soybean exports are lowered 0.4 million tons to 151.5 million. U.S. and Canadian exports are lowered while Brazil’s shipments are revised up due to a competitive exchange rate and ample exportable supplies. China’s imports are raised 1 million tons to 89 million, reflecting higher Brazilian shipments. 

Global soybean ending stocks are 2.0 million tons lower than last month as lower stocks in Brazil are partly offset with higher U.S. and Chinese stocks. 

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