Global coffee stocks at the end of the 2020-21 (Oct-Sept) season are expected to grow to near 42 million 60-kg bags, the highest in six years, as production grows more than consumption, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
In its semiannual report on coffee markets and trade, the USDA forecasts global coffee production will peak at a record of 176.1 million bags, up 9.1 million bags from 2019-20, mainly due to an all-time high output seen at 67.9 million bags in top exporter Brazil.
The report sees exports growing, but at an insufficient pace to offset increasing offer in the market. The USDA said it has considered the impacts of the new coronavirus pandemic when projecting the numbers.
It said the European Union is likely to import 2 million bags more in 2020-21, to 49.5 million bags, while it sees the United States increasing buying as well by 2 million bags, to 27 million bags.
Besides Brazil, Colombia, India, Central America and Mexico are expected to produce more, while Vietnam and Indonesia will have smaller crops.
The USDA has also revised its numbers for the 2019-20 season, taking the coronavirus crisis into consideration. World exports were reduced by 3.4 million bags to 112 million bags. The U.S. is seen cutting imports by 1.2 million bags to 25 million bags on lower consumption and stocks build-up. The European Union is seen reducing imports by 500,000 bags, to 47.5 million bags, for the same reason.