The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season, with improved outlooks for Australia and China more than offsetting a downward revision for the European Union.
In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its global wheat crop forecast by 2 million tonnes to 768 million tonnes, up from the prior season’s 762 million tonnes.
Australia’s wheat crop was seen at 26.2 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 24.0 million tonnes and sharply above the prior season’s 15.2 million tonnes. The improved outlook follows recent heavy rains, which broke a three-year drought that has ravaged the country’s east coast.
The crop in China, the world’s top wheat producer, was seen at 135 million tonnes, up slightly from a previous forecast of 134 million tonnes and the prior season’s 133.6 million tonnes.
The IGC cut, however, its forecast for the EU where dry spring weather has curbed yield potential. Forecast production for the trading bloc, which excludes Britain for the first time in the 2020/21 season, was seen at 128.4 million tonnes, down from a previous projection of 131.7 million tonnes.
The council put 2020/21 world corn (maize) production at 1.172 billion tonnes, up from its previous projection of 1.169 billion tonnes, while total grains output was raised by 7 million tonnes to 2.237 billion tonnes.
Grains stocks by the end of the 2020/21 season were expected to climb to a three-year high of 635 million tonnes, up 20 million tonnes from a year earlier.
World soybean production in 2020/21 was seen at 364 million tonnes, slightly up from a previous projection of 363 million tonnes, driven by a small upward revision for Brazil.