Led by expectations for a record world maize harvest, global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is forecast to increase by 48m t y/y, to a new peak of 2,225m, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest report.
Total consumption is predicted to climb by 39m t, to 2,218m, with most of the gain for feed and industrial uses of maize, the IGC said, adding that world stocks at the end of 2020/21 are forecast to edge higher, to 625m t, but given the anticipated increase in demand, the ratio of global stocks-to-use is seen a fraction lower y/y, to the least in six-seasons.
“This is mainly linked to the fourth successive decline in world maize stocks, with this mostly associated with a sustained contraction in China. Global ending inventories of other grains are all seen expanding, including those of wheat at an all-time high. A small increase in total grains trade is envisaged, to a fresh peak, including the twelfth consecutive annual rise in maize shipments,” the report added.
The IGC forecast world soybean reserves to to contract by by about one-quarter y/y, to 47m t due to a heavy fall in production leading to reduced total availabilities.
“Larger shipments to China and other markets are seen pushing up world trade to a record of 158m t, a 4% y/y gain. Stemming from a rebound in the US, coupled with potentially bigger out-turns in Brazil and Argentina, 2020/21 global output is predicted to increase by 8% y/y. With total use seen advancing by 3%, to a record, inventories are likely to increase only marginally. Trade is projected at a new high, linked to firmer demand from buyers in Asia,” the report said.
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According to the IGC, global rice output in 2019/20 is estimated to have declined marginally y/y, as smaller crops in key producers, notably in China, Thailand and the US, outweighed gains elsewhere.
“Global uptake is seen at a new peak as population growth lifts food requirements in Asia and Africa. Accumulation in China and the major exporters is expected to boost stocks to a fresh high,” the report added.
Firm international prices are seen encouraging growers to plant more rice in 2020/21, with world production potentially reaching a record, and total use and inventories also rising further, it said, adding that trade is tentatively anticipated to expand by 5% y/y, albeit staying below past highs.