Global 2019/20 coffee output seen about 3 percent lower at 168 million bags – ICO

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Global coffee production in coffee year 2019/20 is estimated at 168.01 million bags, a decrease of 2.9% from 2018/19, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in its latest monthly report seen on Friday.

Arabica output is estimated to fall by 5.4% to 95.37 million bags, due to a decline in production in seven of the ten largest Arabica producers, while Robusta production is estimated to increase by 0.5% to 72.63 million bags.

Global coffee consumption, the ICO said, is estimated to rise by 0.3% to 168.49 million bags, which is below the average annual growth rate of 2.2% over the last two decades. Strong growth at the start of the season is expected to be offset by a global economic slowdown.

In June 2020, world coffee exports fell by 5.3% to 10.57 million bags compared to June 2019, due in part to lower production. Shipments of Arabica fell by 10% to 6.42 million bags, but Robusta exports increased by 3% to 4.15 million bags compared to June 2019.

Global exports in the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20 decreased by 5.1% to 95.36 million bags. Shipments of Other Milds shrank by 8.2% to 19.11 million bags in October 2019 to June 2020.

Brazilian Naturals decreased by 7.8% to 28.84 million bags while Colombian Milds exports fell by 7.2% to 10.53 million bags in the first nine months of the coffee year, the ICO said, adding that robusta shipments reached 36.88 million bags, 0.4% lower than in October 2018 to July 2019.

In the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20, green coffee exports represented 90.4% of total exports, amounting to 86.2 million bags.

This current trend is only slightly lower than that observed three decades ago, when green exports accounted for around 95% of total exports, indicating that much of the value addition remains in importing countries.

Soluble coffee shipments accounted for 9.1%, of the total, an increase of 1 percentage point from one year ago, while roasted coffee shipments represented just 0.5%.

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Total exports of soluble coffee reached 8.64 million bags and roasted coffee exports reached 509,000 bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20.

In October 2019 to June 2020, Brazil shipped 26.48 million bags of green coffee, 9.5% lower than the same period one year ago, and accounted for around 30.7% of all green coffee shipments.

Green coffee exports from Viet Nam reached 20.22 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20, representing 23.5% of the total and making it the second largest exporter of green coffee.

Colombia’s green coffee exports fell by 7.4% to 8.72 million bags and
shipments from Honduras declined by 14.1% to 4.81 million bags. However, green exports from both Uganda and Indonesia rose, increasing by 20.6% to 3.79 million bags and by 30.2% to 3.37 million bags, respectively.

The main destinations for green coffee were the United States, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Japan in October 2018 to July 2019.

Mexico, Colombia, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Brazil represent the five largest exporters of roasted coffee among coffee producing countries, accounting for 93.1% of total roasted coffee exports in the first nine months of coffee year 2019/20. Mexico shipped 161,000 bags of roasted coffee while Colombia exported 152,000 bags.

According to the ICO, Viet Nam’s exports of roasted coffee declined by 52.3% to 119,000 bags, and Brazil’s shipments of roasted coffee by 25.4% to 14,200 bags.

However, Indonesia’s exports of roasted coffee more than tripled to 28,600 bags. The United States was the main destination for shipments of roasted coffee, accounting for around 45.7% of the total during the first nine months of 2019/20.

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