Global total grains output forecast up 6 million month-on-month, says IGC


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At a record 2,230m t (2,181m year before), the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is up by 6m m/m (month-on-month), including upward revisions for wheat, maize, sorghum and rye, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest monthly report.

Larger feed use figures for maize and sorghum was mainly behind a 4m t upgrade for projected total consumption, to 2,222m (2,181m), it said.

“The forecast for global grains stocks at the end of 2020/21 is boosted by 5m t m/m (mainly wheat), to 630m, an accumulation of 8m y/y (year-on-year). Adjustments for wheat, maize and sorghum lift the world trade (Jul/Jun) forecast by 4m t m/m, to 395m, an increase of 1% y/y,” the report added.

Tied to continued heavy shipments from South America, chiefly Brazil, IGC lifted its forecast for global soyabean trade in 2019/20 to a peak of 163m t, the 7% y/y gain primarily stemming from bigger dispatches to China.

“Largely on an upgraded outlook for the US, world production in 2020/21 is projected 8m t higher m/m, at a record of 373m, up by 10% y/y. The m/m increase in total supplies results in an upward revision to consumption, seen climbing to a new high, and stocks. Trade is predicted 3m t higher than before, at a peak of 164m, a marginal y/y advance,” it said.

Reflecting a slow pace of shipments, mainly by Thai exporters, the forecast for world rice trade in 2020 was cut by 0.7m t, to a multi-year low of 42m (43m), the third successive y/y decline.

“Production in 2020/21 is projected to rebound by 2% y/y, to a peak of 505m t, on bigger crops in leading exporters. Carryovers are trimmed from before, to 181m t (177m), albeit still a new high, including gains in key exporters. Trade in 2021 is predicted unchanged m/m, at 45m t, a 6% y/y gain,” the IGC said.

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The biggest maize harvest in history is largely behind a projected 50m t jump in world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21, to 2,230m, the IGC said.

The world wheat crop is also expected to be a new high, while above-average out-turns are predicted for barley, sorghum, oats and rye. Total consumption is seen climbing by 41m t y/y, to 2,222m, led by gains for feed (+18m y/y) and industrial uses (+12m), it said.

Amid record supplies, maize demand is seen rising the most, up by 33m t y/y. An 8m t expansion of total grains stocks is foreseen at the end of 2020/21, to 630m t, including accumulations of wheat (+14m) and barley (+3m), but the fourth consecutive contraction of maize inventories (-12m). Trade (Jul/Jun) is seen climbing by 1% y/y, to 395m t, with increased shipments of maize and sorghum, but smaller volumes of wheat and barley.

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