China’s coarse grains and feed-quality wheat consumption in 2020/21 are estimated to increase by 3.2 percent compared to the previous marketing year due to a projected recovery of swine production and strong expansion in the poultry and ruminant sectors, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Though typhoons caused heavy damage and extensive lodging in the major corn producing northeastern provinces, the impact on overall production will be limited as storms hit only weeks before harvest and will not result in a total loss.
An infestation of Fall Army Worm (FAW) is likely to be far lesser then anticipated resulting in a total decrease in corn production of only 4 percent.
While China may rely more on corn imports in the coming marketing year, some of these gains will be mitigated by an increased use of sorghum, barley, and old rice and wheat stocks in feed rations to take the place of record high-priced corn.
Overall feed demand is forecast to recover to the 2017/18 level at around 218.9 million tons.
The feed demand has recovered, but high corn prices restrained its consumption for feed and drove substitution to other feed grains. Mills in the coastal areas reportedly replaced more than 30 percent of the corn in their feed formula with sorghum, barley, and/or wheat.
The government has depleted almost all its temporary corn reserves via 15 rounds of auctions from May to September. China may rely on corn imports and stocks of old rice and wheat to meet feed demand in the coming marketing year.
Higher feed quality wheat requirement is expected to increase the total consumption of the grain by 1 million tons. Sorghum imports during the marketing year 2020/21 are forecast up by 2 million tons to 6 million because it’s a cheaper substitute for expensive corn.
Early rice production reached 27.3 million tons, up 1.03 million tons, or 3.9 percent from 2019, as a dramatic increase in planted area offsets flood damage. More double-cropping area in the south will also lead to higher late rice production.