Global grains production forecast cut by 7 million tonne month/month to 2.219 billion tonnes – IGC


The forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is cut by 7m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,219m, with a 10m downward adjustment for maize only partly offset by upgrades for other grains, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest monthly report.

The reduced outlook for global maize production is mainly linked to cuts for the EU, Ukraine and the USA, the report said.

“At 2,221m t, the world consumption forecast is down by 2m m/m; increased feed use of other grains compensate for a lower projection for maize feeding, but global industrial and other/residual uses of grains are each trimmed from before,” the report said.

Following a 3m t m/m reduction, to 616m, world stocks are now seen posting their fourth consecutive y/y (year-on-year) decline, as another drawdown for maize outweighs accumulations of other grains, it added.

“Largely because of higher than previously projected maize shipments, the forecast for world grains trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 6m t m/m, to a record 409m. The forecast for maize imports by China is lifted sharply, but there are decreases for the EU and Mexico. US maize exports are revised upward to a new all-time high, while shipments by Ukraine are cut to a three-year low,” it said.

Stemming from downgrades for the US and Argentina, the forecast for global soyabean production in 2020/21 is cut by a further 5m t m/m, to 365m, still representing an 8% y/y gain and a new high.

The net m/m fall in total supplies is channelled to reduced outlooks for consumption and stocks, with much of the reduction in inventories on a m/m and y/y basis tied to a contraction in the US. Partly linked to an increased estimate for the prior year, the figure for trade is raised to 168m t, down marginally y/y.

At 503m t, the Council’s forecast for global rice output in 2020/21 is trimmed from before, but would still be up 1% y/y and a new peak, mostly on gains in leading exporters.

The production cut is offset by a higher figure for carry-in stocks, leaving supplies, consumption and carryovers broadly unchanged m/m. The projection for world trade in 2021 is maintained at 45m t, up 3m y/y on potentially bigger deliveries to markets in Africa, the report said.

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