The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised the forecast for world total grains production, including upgrades for wheat and maize, in 2020/21 by 9 million tons month-on-month to 2.224 billion, an increase of 2% y/y (year-on-year).
“Because of increased consumption, projected total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are 2m t lower m/m, at 609m (-8m y/y). The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 4m t m/m, to 416m (+6% y/y), including higher shipments than before of wheat, maize and barley,” it said in its latest monthly report released on Friday.
The first full set of total grains supply and demand projections for 2021/22 point to record production, at 2,287m t, up by 3% y/y. However, larger supply is expected to be entirely absorbed by higher use, leaving global stocks unchanged y/y, it said.
With upgrades for Brazil and India more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina, global soyabean production in 2020/21 is forecast fractionally higher m/m, at 361m t (+7% y/y).
With the net increase in supplies matched by an uprated figure for use, stocks are steady m/m, at 45m t (-7m y/y). Trade is raised slightly, to 170m t, matching the prior year’s record.
World harvested area is projected to expand by 4% y/y in 2021/22, as production reaches a high of 383m t. While some replenishment of stocks is anticipated, major exporters’ inventories are likely to remain tight. Trade is predicted to rise by 2% y/y.
The forecast for global rice consumption in 2020/21 is raised m/m, with ending stocks trimmed slightly, to 174m, broadly steady y/y, the IGC said.
Amid prospects for increased plantings in key exporters, world production in 2021/22 is seen increasing by 1% y/y, to a peak of 510m t, with total use and inventories potentially at new highs.
Trade in 2022 is projected at a high level on African demand, the global body said.