Global soybean production and trade in 2021-22 (October-September) are seen at a record high because of rising demand for the oilseed, the International Grains Council said in a report. This is likely to lead to a spurt in international soybean prices.
Global soybean prices have been rising since mid-2020 on robust demand from China, coupled with unfavorable South American weather and tight ending stocks. As a result, while the Brazilian domestic prices have doubled year on year to Real 163.43 per 60 kg as of April 23, US soybean May futures prices were trading at $15.0238 per bushel, up by $ 7 year on year.
With high prices expected to elicit a supply response, 2021-22 world soybean output is tentatively placed at a record of 383 million tonnes, up by 6% year on year, IGC said.
Global soybean trade in 2021-22 is projected at a record 173.4 million tonnes, the report said. After jumping the previous year, global trade is seen increasing only marginally, albeit to a new peak. Consumption is expected to climb further in 2021-22, while modest inventory accumulation is likely, IGC said.
According to market analysts, China is seen as the primary driving force in the surging oilseed trade. China — the world’s largest soybean importer — is projected to buy a record 103.8 million tonnes of beans in 2021-22, accounting for 60 per centof global trade, IGC said.
Brazil and the US — the world’s top soybean producers — are projected to produce 139 million tonnes and 120.8 million tonnes of beans in 2021-22, respectively, the report said.
Largely tied to an upgrade for Brazil, the forecast for 2020-21 soybean production increased by 1 million tonnes month on month to 362 million tonnes, up by 7% year on year, IGC said.Brazil is forecast to produce a record 134.5 million tonnes in 2021-21, the data showed.