Global sugar production in 2021/22 is forecast up 6 million tons to 186 million as higher production in the European Union, India, and Thailand will more than offset the decline in Brazil, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report.
Consumption is forecast to rise to a new record due to growth in markets such as China and India, it said, adding that exports are forecast up as the increase from Thailand along with strong exports from India will more than offset lower exports from Brazil.
Stocks are forecast lower as stocks in Thailand are drawn down in favour of higher exports, the report added. The marketing year for Thailand starts in December, whereas the marketing year for Brazil starts in April.
Global Sugar Overview
India production is forecast to grow 3 percent to 34.7 million tons, assuming favourable weather. Consumption is forecast at a record with the expectation that the economy recovers from the pandemic with the marketing year that begins in October. Imports and exports are forecast unchanged, but stocks are up almost 8 percent due to higher beginning stocks and higher production.
U.S. production is forecast up marginally to a record 8.4 million tons, as gains from beet sugar more than offset the drop in cane sugar production in Louisiana. Imports are down 16 percent to 2.4 million tons based on projected quota programs and the calculation of U.S. Consumption is forecast unchanged while stocks are lowered with the drop in imports.
Australia’s production is forecast up 65,000 tons to 4.4 million due to higher yields. Consumption and exports are up with the rise in production, while ending stocks are projected lower. Australia exports around three-quarters of its sugar production with most exports destined for Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea.
Brazil production is forecast to drop 5 percent to 39.9 million tons due to a reduced volume of sugarcane for crushing. The sugar/ethanol production mix is expected to be similar to the previous season at 46.5 percent sugar and 53.5 percent ethanol. Consumption is estimated up slightly. Stocks are forecast to more than double while exports decline from last year’s record but still represent the second-highest export level.
China production is up marginally to 10.6 million tons as rising cane sugar production is expected to offset lower beet sugar production. With rebounding consumption, imports are forecast to rise slightly. Stocks are down for the seventh consecutive year.
European Union production is forecast 7 percent higher to 15.8 million tons as additional member states such as France and Germany are provided exemptions on the neonicotinoid ban. Sugarbeet seeds will be allowed to be coated with a neonicotinoid to help protect from beet yellow virus. In 2018, the European Commission banned the use of three neonicotenoids (clothianidin, imidacloprid, thiamethoxam), except for use in greenhouses, because of their harmful effect on wild bees and honeybees.
United Kingdom production is forecast to rise 100,000 tons to 1.0 million on higher yields. Imports are down with the higher production while consumption is forecast flat.
Guatemala production is forecast to rebound 3 percent to 2.7 million tons on higher sugar yields resulting mainly from the adoption of improved sugarcane varieties. Consumption is unchanged while exports are up on higher supplies with Canada, Chile, and the United States expected to be the top markets.
Mexico production is forecast slightly lower to 6.2 million tons (5.8 million tons, actual weight) due to lower sugarcane yields as a result of ongoing drought and poor soil quality. Consumption is gradually decreasing due to a weak economy and high inflation. Exports are forecast higher, with shipments to the United States projected at the expected level of U.S..
Thailand production is forecast to rebound 3.0 million tons to 10.6 million on higher sugarcane yields, increased harvested area, and favourable weather. Unlike Brazil’s marketing year that starts in April, Thailand’s marketing year begins in December. Consumption growth is driven by strong demand for direct sugar consumption and food-processing. With favorable supplies and robust global demand, exports are forecast at a record 10.4 million tons. Stocks are forecast down with the increase in exports.