The latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on Thursday by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) offered its first forecast for world cereal production in 2021 – now pegged at nearly 2 821 million tonnes, a new record and a 1.9 percent increase from 2020, led by a foreseen 3.7 percent annual growth in maize output.
World cereal utilization in 2021/22 is predicted to expand by 1.7 percent to 2 826 million tonnes. Total cereal food consumption is forecast to rise in tandem with world population, while an increased use of wheat for animal feed is also anticipated, the brief said.
Based on those forecasts, world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons in 2021/22 are anticipated to increase by 0.3 percent to 811 million tonnes. While the expected modest rise would end three consecutive years of decline, the global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline further to 28.1 percent.
FAO’s first forecast for world trade in cereals in the new season indicates an increase of only 0.3 percent from the high level estimated for 2020/21, when trade is expected to expand by as much as 6.3 percent to a peak level of 468 million tonnes.