Upward trend in global coffee prices confirms recovery from lows of last nearly four years, says ICO

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A firm upward trend of coffee prices over the first eight months of coffee year 2020/21 seems to confirm a net recovery from the low price levels that began in coffee year 2017/18, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in its latest monthly report, adding that coffee prices surged higher in May showing signs of progressive recovery with revival in demand and renewed concern over Brazil 2021/22 crop.

In May 2021, the ICO composite indicator rose by 10.4% to 134.78 US cents/lb, the highest monthly average since the level of 137.68 US Cents/lb registered in February 2017, adding that prices of all four groups of coffee have recorded a substantial increase, particularly the groups of Arabica coffee.

“The price performance has been driven by an expected reduction in production in key exporting countries like Brazil for the 2021/22 season. Moreover, the brighter prospects for demand as the covid-19 pandemic-related lockdown measures are being removed in major consuming markets with the covid-19 vaccine programmes is generating greater confidence of consumers in an economic recovery and return to normal,” ICO said.

Shipments by exporting countries to all destinations totalled 11.40 million 60-kg bags in April 2021, compared with 11.29 million bags in April 2020. As a result, total exports over the first 7 months of coffee year 2020/21 amounted to 77.52 million bags compared to 74.49 million bags over the same period in coffee year 2019/20,” ICO said.

It said cumulative exports from May 2020 to April 2021 are estimated at 130.40 million bags, a small decrease of 0.48% compared with the 130.97 million bags recorded from May 2019 to April 2020.

World consumption for coffee year 2020/21 is projected at 167.58 million bags, an increase of 1.9% on its level of 164.43 million bags in coffee year 2019/20, while total production for the same period is estimated at 169.60 million bags, representing a 0.4% increase on 168.94 million bags in the previous coffee year.

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